IT IS COMING!!!!!!!!!(DOWN)
WISH YOU ALL
A VERY HAPPY
INDEPENDENCE DAY
About 10 days back when I wrote that Sensex has temporarily peaked at 15868 and can correct upto 14200 in the next 4-6 weeks, I got so many mails questioning my analysis and stamping me as a pessimist or person with bearish mentality(In stock market, a bear is one who thinks that prices will come down as against a bull who thinks prices will go up) The market was all over the place in these 10days with clear signs of lack of conviction as shown by the moneyflow and turnover. And the mother of all markets, the U.S stock market is nowhere near recovery but on the other hand slipping at every negative news. And knowing the force of the market, the infusion of 30-40billion dollars is not going to stem the slide. But as always in the past, people start buying whenever there is a sharp dip in the market either expecting a bounceback or thinking it is cheap(relatively) to what it was 3-4 weeks back.
The problem with most of the investors is that they dont make investments as investments.They buy because they think it is cheap to buy without looking that the prices have already factored in all the positives and the factors that where pushing the prices up for the last 4 yrs no longer exist to warrant an investment now. There can be exceptions but I am talking of a broader scenario.
Since most of the investors & traders have seen only an uptrend last 3-4 yrs without any meaningful correction (except for one in May-June2006) their mindset is only to buy on dips and keep buying as market falls hoping for the recovery. This is how they bought Software stocks in 2000-2001 and Sugar stocks in the last 1 year. In this process lot of fresh money will get blocked in the form of shares as human mind will not react quickly to book losses. This will ultimately lead to lesser interest & premium in new issues(IPOs) and lesser interest in secondary markets also.
While the raise in stock prices are slow and laboured the fall is always quick and rapid wiping several months profits in no time and also it is the Golden rule that "The Higher it goes the Greater is the fall"
While I am pretty much convinced that 14200 will be seen in the next 4 weeks I shall revise my target as and when it happens. For the time being my advise is to sell at every rise and stay on cash and resist the temptation of buying thinking that the prices are cheap. If you have not invested before but sitting on cash looking for the right opportunities, just stay away and watch the fun for the time being.
A VERY HAPPY
INDEPENDENCE DAY
About 10 days back when I wrote that Sensex has temporarily peaked at 15868 and can correct upto 14200 in the next 4-6 weeks, I got so many mails questioning my analysis and stamping me as a pessimist or person with bearish mentality(In stock market, a bear is one who thinks that prices will come down as against a bull who thinks prices will go up) The market was all over the place in these 10days with clear signs of lack of conviction as shown by the moneyflow and turnover. And the mother of all markets, the U.S stock market is nowhere near recovery but on the other hand slipping at every negative news. And knowing the force of the market, the infusion of 30-40billion dollars is not going to stem the slide. But as always in the past, people start buying whenever there is a sharp dip in the market either expecting a bounceback or thinking it is cheap(relatively) to what it was 3-4 weeks back.
The problem with most of the investors is that they dont make investments as investments.They buy because they think it is cheap to buy without looking that the prices have already factored in all the positives and the factors that where pushing the prices up for the last 4 yrs no longer exist to warrant an investment now. There can be exceptions but I am talking of a broader scenario.
Since most of the investors & traders have seen only an uptrend last 3-4 yrs without any meaningful correction (except for one in May-June2006) their mindset is only to buy on dips and keep buying as market falls hoping for the recovery. This is how they bought Software stocks in 2000-2001 and Sugar stocks in the last 1 year. In this process lot of fresh money will get blocked in the form of shares as human mind will not react quickly to book losses. This will ultimately lead to lesser interest & premium in new issues(IPOs) and lesser interest in secondary markets also.
While the raise in stock prices are slow and laboured the fall is always quick and rapid wiping several months profits in no time and also it is the Golden rule that "The Higher it goes the Greater is the fall"
While I am pretty much convinced that 14200 will be seen in the next 4 weeks I shall revise my target as and when it happens. For the time being my advise is to sell at every rise and stay on cash and resist the temptation of buying thinking that the prices are cheap. If you have not invested before but sitting on cash looking for the right opportunities, just stay away and watch the fun for the time being.
posted by manipayal @ 11:33 PM
2 Comments:
At 11:14 PM,
தி. ரா. ச.(T.R.C.) said…
you said it correctly. now down by another 612v points
Now onee can go sell now and buy latter and make money
At 10:55 PM,
manipayal said…
Thank You Sir, But selling & buying is easier daid than done but that should largely be the strategy for the next 6-8 weeks.Willpost my current views on Sunday now that it has breached and 14200 and also 14000(intra day) and closed below 14200 for the day & the week
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