SCALING NEW HEIGHTS (OR) DIZZY HEIGHTS?
It has now become a regular feature, when you talk about Indian Stock market, to ask how much SENSEX or NIFTY go UP this week? 3 or 4 or 5 percent. Even the mature and knowledgable Market Analysts are afraid to talk about correction or they word it so carefully with lot of adjectives like - "Having said that", "I dont want to spoil the party","I expect a correction but I hope I am wrong" and all. The other day even the CNBC TV18 anchor Udayan Mukharjee cooly said he is so much used to saying that market is up 300 or 500 points that even on downdays he is still saying up only(by mistake)Anyway Market teaches people in its own way to rectify the mistakes sooner than later.
Many of us remember the famous K-10 stocks during 1999-2000 I.T boom when Ketan Parekh's name associated with a few stocks. Before that in 1992 any share which went up was associated with Harshad Mehta. Now in this bull market which started in April 2003 with Banking and Steel, then spread to Sugar and Retail and is now spreading like wild fire to R-10 stocks along with Power,Infra Structure and Real estate and construction shares.These R-10 stocks represent the Reliance group shares(both brothers) and then the Adlabs,Jai Corporation and anything else even if they have a slight association with reliance(like Nagar.Fert)
When the I.T boom went burst, whether due to excesses in U.S or India, most of the 2nd and 3rd level companies lost anywhere between 80-90% of the values and the better managed one lost only 50-60%. The same story is likely to be repeated in many cases now also and as usual the authorities - be it stock exchange or SEBI turn a blind eye to the manipulation.
Mukesh Ambani says that he is not bothered about his wealth and would like to provide employment and social uplifement but is spending 1bn U.S dollars - Rs.4000crs for his 27 story house for his family alone.
Sunil Bharti Mittal talks about transperancy and efficiency in Govt departments while starting a new enterprise but still we all know how difficult it is to get a birth or death certificate in a Corporation Office or register a land in a Sub-Registrar's office without paying money.
So while a small % of the people talk abt Demat a/cs and GDP growth, the vast majority of the Indian population is worried about water,sanitation and infrastructure.
While a select group of Industries thrive, a vast majority of them struggle or survive due to Govt.policy/subsidy like - Sugar,Fertiliser,Gas and Oil Marketing. A few other industries which were thriving on weak rupee for so many years are now paying the price by the appreciating rupee.
With so much negatives scattered all around(not to speak of early elections) I am firmly of the opinion that opportunity loss(notional) of not participating in the market is better than the actual loss to be incurred by heavyly investing at this level of 18400.
A sharp and Swift correction is surely on the way and let us wait and see how many of the market players say that it was a welcome correction and how much of the money
which is waiting in the sidelines is rushing in during that fall.Good Luck!!!!
Many of us remember the famous K-10 stocks during 1999-2000 I.T boom when Ketan Parekh's name associated with a few stocks. Before that in 1992 any share which went up was associated with Harshad Mehta. Now in this bull market which started in April 2003 with Banking and Steel, then spread to Sugar and Retail and is now spreading like wild fire to R-10 stocks along with Power,Infra Structure and Real estate and construction shares.These R-10 stocks represent the Reliance group shares(both brothers) and then the Adlabs,Jai Corporation and anything else even if they have a slight association with reliance(like Nagar.Fert)
When the I.T boom went burst, whether due to excesses in U.S or India, most of the 2nd and 3rd level companies lost anywhere between 80-90% of the values and the better managed one lost only 50-60%. The same story is likely to be repeated in many cases now also and as usual the authorities - be it stock exchange or SEBI turn a blind eye to the manipulation.
Mukesh Ambani says that he is not bothered about his wealth and would like to provide employment and social uplifement but is spending 1bn U.S dollars - Rs.4000crs for his 27 story house for his family alone.
Sunil Bharti Mittal talks about transperancy and efficiency in Govt departments while starting a new enterprise but still we all know how difficult it is to get a birth or death certificate in a Corporation Office or register a land in a Sub-Registrar's office without paying money.
So while a small % of the people talk abt Demat a/cs and GDP growth, the vast majority of the Indian population is worried about water,sanitation and infrastructure.
While a select group of Industries thrive, a vast majority of them struggle or survive due to Govt.policy/subsidy like - Sugar,Fertiliser,Gas and Oil Marketing. A few other industries which were thriving on weak rupee for so many years are now paying the price by the appreciating rupee.
With so much negatives scattered all around(not to speak of early elections) I am firmly of the opinion that opportunity loss(notional) of not participating in the market is better than the actual loss to be incurred by heavyly investing at this level of 18400.
A sharp and Swift correction is surely on the way and let us wait and see how many of the market players say that it was a welcome correction and how much of the money
which is waiting in the sidelines is rushing in during that fall.Good Luck!!!!
Labels: stock market and indian economy
posted by manipayal @ 6:03 AM
1 Comments:
At 11:22 AM,
Sudha said…
I too am expecting a fall .But it could be too long also.To escape from dollar crunch (value reduction i mean)it seems investments will fall into developing countries to compensate the loss .This could take things to new high .Also I got the rumour that market could hit 40000 sensex on the extreme.But i do not know anything about that.But lets see!!!
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