20K conquered

29th october 2007 is a historic day in Indian Stock Market. The BSE Sensex crossed 20000 for the first time in its history - a phenominal performence considering that Sensex was just below 3000 in April 2003 when this Bull market started.In fact after touching a high of 6150 in March2000 during the I.T boom and then falling to a low of 2595, it took more than 4 years for Sensex to break 6150 again but has taken again just 4years to touch 20000, by no means a normal achievement.While many of the I.T shares have never seen their peak again and on the contratry still trading at huge losses after 7 years, this new bull rally is triggered by a lot of sectors like steel,cement,banking,real estate,contruction,infrastructure,power and so on. So the rally was certainly broad based and supported by large flows of foreign investment.
Though there were some pockets of speculation and over valuation, the market showed lot of resilience, particularly on the political front, and gain from strength to strength after every major correction.And like every bull market enough stories are said now to justify the valuations and infact suggesting even higer valuations because China is trading at higher PE, more foreign flows will come in because of the Indian growth story, the strengthening of Rupee and weakening of dollar and so on. Like many I was also on the camp that there will be a steep correction - time wise - and stayed with more than 50% in cash. But since nobody can time the market and I have seen more than twice these excesses getting evoparated quickly, I still prefer to see the opportunity loss rather than to invest fully and take actual loss and also not have money to buy when that correction actually happens.With Fed likely to cut rates again today, markets may rally once more to a new high before realising the seriousness of the trouble in U.S Economy at some point which will surely trigger a global sell off.

CLIMAX OR ANTI - CLIMAX

So it arrived in its own style and ferosity. The correction in Indian Stock markets is there at last for all of us to see. The proposed steps to regulate foreign investments thro P.N.s(Participatory Notes) was only a trigger. If not this, something else would have triggered the fall(welcome correction, if it may soothe the optimists)
And what a day for it to confirm the reversal, 19th October, which marks the 20th Anniversary of the great crash of 1987 in U.S.markets. On that day the Dow Jones(index of U.S.Market) plunged 22.6% resulting in a loss in market value of, just hold your breath, 700 billion U.S.dollars. I shall post a seperate article on how it all happened in 1987, what led to that crash and how it all started in 1982 and all.
We have been seeing in the last 1 month,specifically from 18th Spet2007 when U.S Fed cut interest rate by 0.50%, how the world markets were celeberating the rise in stock markets due to the liquidity factor.Most of the optimists forgot to understand(or choose to neglect)the seriousness of the problems in U.S Housing and Financial markets which forced the Fed to cut interest rate that steeply.Their minds refused to understand or accept reasoning and logic as easy money making usually do.
When lot of knowledgeble and experienced Analysts/Investors pointed out that the speed of the rise is dangerous and hazardous, they were told that MARKET WILL DO WHICH IT WILL CHOOSE TO DO AND THE SCREEN TELLS YOU TO BUY SO DONT FIGHT IT. And they were also told that holding cash in a Portfolio is next to stupidity when the market goes us 4-5% week on week.But when the market tanks under its own weight these optimists make a hue and cry about Govt.decisions and regulator's action. Now they dont accept that MARKET IS DOING WHAT IT IS SUPPOSED TO DO AND SO ACCEPT THE SCREEN.
And I am appauled by the noise created by CNBC-TV18 and Mr.Udhayan Mukarjee. I wonder whether they are running a Media channel or a Broking house. The way they keep looking at the screen instead of the camera and viewers, they way they react to every move up and down, the way they look for clues from Asia or Europe when sensex or nifty falls 100 or 35 points is crazy to understand or comprahend. I doubt whether Mr.Raghav Bahl checks once in a way what is happening in the studio or what is the quality of the content or programme. It is a channel which is supposed to cover the market happenings in general and the corporate happenings in particular as it is this factor which determines the stock prices in the long term. But then, the way they celeberate the rise of every 1000pts(including having a quick drink during the working hours) and the way they extrapolate the index to predict the same for deepavali or year end is nothing short of misleading the small investors.I am sure that many small(poor) investors were sucked into the Indian markets near its peak only because of CNBC-TV18 even against the advise of many of their stock brokers.
But now Mr.Udhayan should understand and accept that MARKET IS DOING WHAT IT SHOULD DO and not blame Mr.Damodaran or Mr.Chidambaram.
And to cap all these happenings in Indian market, the 20th anniversary was celeberated in U.S also in a classic way. The Dow Jones fell 366 points and Nasdaq 75 point, a fall of 2.65% each.
My view is that the problems of U.S market and U.S economy are far serious than people have understood so far and being in a globalised world, every major country in the world map will suffer because of that inspite of local economies growing. And the Indian stock market is still to shed and pay for its excesses in the coming days. So far only the positives are factored in by the market and from now on you will see the negatives getting factored in. This will take the market to the first level of 15500 for sure and maybe 13000-14000 in the next 6-12 months.Let us see how much of that MONEY which was WAITING IN THE SIDELINES gets in during these corrections and how much of that MONEY continues to remain in the sidelines or makes a quiet exit from the queue.

WHY I AM HAPPY?

1.Is it because Russsian President Putin not only brushed aside the outcry by U.S and its allies about Iran's nuclear progress but went a step ahead to say that they are only for civilian purpose and nobody should think of using force against Iran?

2. Is it because the group of nations that met in Iran decided that none of the member nations' soil/land will be utilised by a third party as a base for an attack against them?

3.Is it because Turkey turned deaf ears to the U.S's objections of an operation against the Kurdish Rebels(PKK) in Iraq which they say may destabilise Northern Iraq?
After all how can the U.S allow somebody else to destabilise Iraq when it has taken up that job 4 years ago and is still at it?

4.Is it because Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh preferred to put off the nuclear deal between India and U.S to save the Govt(congress) and the Chair(person)?

5.Is it because China strongly objected to the U.S.Govt inviting and awarding Dalai Lama?

6.Is it because of the phenominal ability of President Bush to singlehandedly annoy and irritate people all over the world with his foreign policy?

I dont know, but I am happy and I thank everyone there who is making me happy.

SCALING NEW HEIGHTS (OR) DIZZY HEIGHTS?

It has now become a regular feature, when you talk about Indian Stock market, to ask how much SENSEX or NIFTY go UP this week? 3 or 4 or 5 percent. Even the mature and knowledgable Market Analysts are afraid to talk about correction or they word it so carefully with lot of adjectives like - "Having said that", "I dont want to spoil the party","I expect a correction but I hope I am wrong" and all. The other day even the CNBC TV18 anchor Udayan Mukharjee cooly said he is so much used to saying that market is up 300 or 500 points that even on downdays he is still saying up only(by mistake)Anyway Market teaches people in its own way to rectify the mistakes sooner than later.
Many of us remember the famous K-10 stocks during 1999-2000 I.T boom when Ketan Parekh's name associated with a few stocks. Before that in 1992 any share which went up was associated with Harshad Mehta. Now in this bull market which started in April 2003 with Banking and Steel, then spread to Sugar and Retail and is now spreading like wild fire to R-10 stocks along with Power,Infra Structure and Real estate and construction shares.These R-10 stocks represent the Reliance group shares(both brothers) and then the Adlabs,Jai Corporation and anything else even if they have a slight association with reliance(like Nagar.Fert)
When the I.T boom went burst, whether due to excesses in U.S or India, most of the 2nd and 3rd level companies lost anywhere between 80-90% of the values and the better managed one lost only 50-60%. The same story is likely to be repeated in many cases now also and as usual the authorities - be it stock exchange or SEBI turn a blind eye to the manipulation.
Mukesh Ambani says that he is not bothered about his wealth and would like to provide employment and social uplifement but is spending 1bn U.S dollars - Rs.4000crs for his 27 story house for his family alone.
Sunil Bharti Mittal talks about transperancy and efficiency in Govt departments while starting a new enterprise but still we all know how difficult it is to get a birth or death certificate in a Corporation Office or register a land in a Sub-Registrar's office without paying money.
So while a small % of the people talk abt Demat a/cs and GDP growth, the vast majority of the Indian population is worried about water,sanitation and infrastructure.
While a select group of Industries thrive, a vast majority of them struggle or survive due to Govt.policy/subsidy like - Sugar,Fertiliser,Gas and Oil Marketing. A few other industries which were thriving on weak rupee for so many years are now paying the price by the appreciating rupee.
With so much negatives scattered all around(not to speak of early elections) I am firmly of the opinion that opportunity loss(notional) of not participating in the market is better than the actual loss to be incurred by heavyly investing at this level of 18400.
A sharp and Swift correction is surely on the way and let us wait and see how many of the market players say that it was a welcome correction and how much of the money
which is waiting in the sidelines is rushing in during that fall.Good Luck!!!!

SIGNS OF TIREDNESS

This week, the stock markets all over the world and particularly in India continued their upward march,albeit at slower pace. The volatality factor is back again in its full force, especially in emerging markets like Hongkong and India. These markets continue to ignore the negative factors which are like live mines which can explode anytime. They are only going by momentum and moneyflow with no relevence to the valuation. How long this momentum will continue nobody knows though every participant knows that it will loose stream at some point. It is like a rubber band which is streached endlessly and at some point it will snap.

WE have seen in the past that a particular sector leads the market up - in 2000 it was technology, in 2005-2006 it was sugar and so on. And at the peak of their valuations, convincing stories will be told to justify the valuation.When Wipro touched around Rs.40000/- for a Rs.10/- (adjusted to 1633 after bonus & split & now trading at 460), lack of enough floating stock was the only reason for the hot money which chased that share disregarding that the PE was around 600. When a Rs.1/- face value of Zee Tele touched Rs.1600/- the PE was around 900. And most of these shares corrected anywhere between 80 to 90% from their peak value, Wipro coming down to 170/- level and Zee tele touching around Rs.70/- before recovering to where they are now but still far below their peak rates after 7 years of blocking money.

The case of Sugar companies was almost similar though the PE valuations there did not go beyound 40-50. And still most of these shares have lost anywhere between 70-90% value.

With this bull phase triggered primarily by the Infrastructure,construction and real estate sectors, it will sure repeat the stories of I.T Bubble, Sugar Bubble and so on.While the companies project a growth rate of 25-30% annually, the stock prices have already discounted 2009-2010 earnings. With interest rates not likely to come down sharply so soon and the purchasing power of NRIs(one of the major contituents of demand side) getting reduced significantly by the appreciation of rupee, the first signs of a slowdown is already evident in many cities. This will only have a ripple effect in the coming quarters resulting in a sharp erosion in stock valuations.So watch out for this space carefully and lighten your exposure to this sectors which can be a big drag in your portfolio

ramar bridge - a discussion by rama and aanjaneeya

ராமர் பாலம் பற்றி ராமரும் அனுமாரும் ஒரு கலந்துரையாடல்

ராமர்: என் அன்பிற்குரிய அனுமாரே, எவ்வளவு அருமையாக உன் வானர சேனையுடன் இந்த பாலத்தை கட்டி இருக்கின்றீர்கள். பல்லாயிரம் ஆண்டு ஆன போதிலும்,பல விதமான இயற்கை சோதனைகளுக்கு ஆளாகியும் இன்றும் இந்த பாலம் உறுதியாக உள்ளதே. ஆனால் இப்பொழுதோ Gammon India ஹைதிராபாதில் கட்டும் போழுதே பாலம் இடிந்து விடுகிறதே.

அனுமார்: ராமா, இது எல்லாம் உன் அருளால் நடந்தது. நாங்கள் TISCOவிடம் இருந்து இரும்பு கம்பிகளோ, ACCயிடம் இருந்து சிமிண்ட்டோ வாங்கவில்லை.எல்லா கற்களிலும் ராமா ராமா என்று எழுதி கடலில் போட்டோம் அவ்வுளவுதான். இப்பொழுது அதை பற்றி என்ன?

ராமர்:அந்த பாலத்தை இடிக்க போவதாக பூமியில் பேச்சு எழுந்துள்ளது நாம்
நேரில் போய் இதை எடுத்து சொன்னால் என்ன?

அனுமார்:ராமா, இப்போது பூமியில் நிறைய மாறி விட்டது. வாய் வார்த்தையை யாரும் நம்புவதில்லை.எல்லாவற்றிற்கும் சான்றிதழ் தேவை. நாம் அங்கு போனால், நமது பிறப்பு சான்றிதழ், நாம் உயிரோடு இருப்பதற்கு மருத்துவர் சான்றிதழ் எல்லாம் கேட்பார்கள். அந்த காலத்தில் நாமோ நடந்தோ இல்லை குதிரை மேலோ செல்வோம். ஆனால் இப்போழுதோ டிரைவிங் லைசென்ஸ் தேவை. நீங்கள் வாகனம் ஓட்டாவிட்டாலும் வாகனம் வாங்கினால் லைசென்ஸ் வாங்க வேண்டும்

ராமர்: ஆமாம் ஆமாம். நான் அயோத்தியில் பிறந்ததே இன்னும் சர்ச்சையில் உள்ளது. அதனால் நான் வீட்டு விலாச(address proof) சான்றிதழும் கொடுக்க முடியாது. அரண்மனையிலேயே எல்லா பாடங்களையும் வித்தைகளையும் பயின்றதால் பள்ளி சான்றிதழோ கல்லூரி சான்றிதழோ கொடுக்க முடியாது.ஆனால் நீதான் உன் வானர சேனையுடன் இந்த பாலத்தை கட்டினாய்.அதை கண்ணால் பார்த்த நான் சாட்சி. ஆனால் நான் இதே உருவத்தில் வந்தால் மக்கள் என்னை அடையாளம் கண்டு கொண்டாலும், அர்ஜுன் சிங் ஒப்புகொள்வாரா என்பது சந்தேகம்தான்.

அனுமார்: கட்டாயமாக நீதிமன்றத்தில் ஒப்பு கொள்ள மாட்டார்கள்.மேலும் பாலம் கட்டியதை தாங்கள் பார்த்ததாக சொன்னால் இன்னும் பல கேள்விகளை தமிழ் நாடு அரசு கேட்கும். பாலம் கட்ட அரசு ஒப்புதல் உள்ளதா? அதற்கான நிதி எங்கிருந்து வந்தது? ஒதுக்கபட வேண்டியவர்களுக்கு நிதி ஒதுக்கப்பட்டதா? என்ற பல கேள்விகளை தங்கள் எதிர் கொள்ள வேண்டும். மேலும் நீங்கள் வழக்கிற்கு சம்பந்த பட்டவராதனால், உங்கள் சாட்சியம் எற்றுகொள்ள படாது.இந்த பூமியில் எவ்வளவோ பேருக்கு நீங்கள் தரிசனம் தந்து அருளியுள்ளீர்கள். சுர்தாஸ், துளசிதாஸ், தியாகராஜர், ஜெயதேவர் மற்றும் துக்காரம் போன்றவர்களுக்கு தெரிந்துள்ளீர்கள். இவர்கள் எல்லாம் இருப்பதாக சரித்திர சான்றுகளும் உள்ளன. ஆனால் நீங்கள் இருந்ததை மட்டும் ஒப்பு கொள்ள மறுக்கின்றார்கள்.
மீண்டும் ஒரு முறை ராமாயணத்தை பூமியில் நடத்தி காட்டினால்தான் நம்புவார்கள்,ராமா.

ராமர்: அனுமனே, அது அவ்வளவு சுலபம் அல்ல. ராவணன் இதற்கு ஒப்புகொள்வானா தெரியாது. அவன் கருணாநிதியை பார்க்க பயப்படுகிறான்.அவன் மாமன் மாரீசனோ பூமியில் "சல்மான் கான்" இருக்கும் வரை அந்த பக்கமே ஒதுங்க மாட்டேன் என பிடிவாதம் செய்கிறான்.அது சரி, எல்லா கற்களிலும் "ராமா, ராமா" என்று எழுதியதாக சொன்னாயே, நீ எங்கே படித்தாய்? அதற்கு ஏதாவது சாட்சியம் உள்ளதா?

அனுமார்: ராமா, ராமா என்ன விட்டுடுங்கோ!!!

Padmini's Manas Trip photos

போன மாதம் என் தங்கமணியும் தர்மபத்(மினி)தினியும்(அட இரண்டும் ஒன்னுதாங்க) அவளுடைய கசின் சிஸ்டரும் மற்றும் சில நண்பர்களும் 18 நாள் யாத்திரை மானஸரோவர் சென்று கைலாயத்தை தரிசித்து விட்டு வந்தார்கள். அப்பொழுது எடுத்த சில புகைப்படங்கள் உங்கள் பார்வைக்காக