IS IT THE BEGINNING OR THE END??????????

After watching many financial Institutions shuting shop in the last 2-3 months, the question in everybody's mind is - where all this will stop? For more than a year since the sub-prime crisis broke out, the U.S.Govt and its high flying corporate big-wigs were in a denial mode. They kept saying(intentionally and/or foolishly) that the sub prime crisis will not spread to the overall economy and that the financial instituions carrying billions of dollars of these toxic securities are safe and so on. Now it is open to all to see that years of constant borrowing and spending is costing the U.S.A very badly and it is dragging down the world along with it.

I was surprised and little shocked that many pundits and analysts in India were talking about a phenomenon called "De Coupling" theory.When the going was good - they wanted all the money from the west and when the west had a problem, they were talking as if India is immune to the troubles of the west.And please remember that while they(FII's) invested many many billions in India markets in the last4-5 years of bull phase, they have withdrawn only about 9 billion U.S.dollars since the fall started from 21200(sensex) in January2008.

As it happens in any bull market, the real estate,construction & infrastructure sector shares went through the roof in valuations and the stories were properly in place to justify those hefty valuations. Now these shares have lost anywhere between 60 -80% from their all time highs.

Though the nifty broke the previous low of 3790 today, it had a nice pullback to close at 3850 giving some hope for the bulls/optimists.But I feel this pullback maybe short lived and Nifty is sure to break todays low of 3775 and come down to around 3425-3475 in the next 3 months. But I am still not sure whether that will be the bottom for the market. I wish I know the answer. So, till then, like all of you, I will also wait (im)patiently.